Exploring future changes in smallholder farming systems by linking socio-economic scenarios with regional and household models     

《Global Environmental Change》2014

We explore how smallholder agricultural systems in the Kenyan highlands might intensify and/or diversify in the future under a range of socio-economic scenarios. Data from approximately 3000 households were analyzed and farming systems characterized. Plausible socio-economic scenarios of how Kenya might evolve, and their potential impacts on the agricultural sector, were developed with a range of stakeholders. We study how different types of farming systems might increase or diminish in importance under different scenarios using a land-use model sensitive to prices, opportunity cost of land and labour, and other variables. We then use a household model to determine the types of enterprises in which different types of households might engage under different socio-economic conditions. Trajectories of intensification, diversification, and stagnation for different farming systems are identified. Diversification with cash crops is found to be a key intensification strategy as farm size decreases and labour costs increase. Dairy expansion, while important for some trajectories, is mostly viable when land available is not a constraint, mainly due to the need for planting fodders at the expense of cropland areas. We discuss the results in relation to induced innovation theories of intensification. We outline how the methodology employed could be used for integrating global and regional change assessments with local-level studies on farming options, adaptation to global change, and upscaling of social, environmental and economic impacts of agricultural development investments and interventions.  相似文献   

The duration of near‐peak metamorphism from diffusion modelling of garnet zoning     

F. S. Spear 《Journal of Metamorphic Geology》2014,32(8):903-914

Garnet in a staurolite–kyanite zone sample from central Vermont displays a bell‐shaped Mn growth zoning with diffusional modification over the outer 100 μm. The diffusion is driven by the prograde net transfer reaction garnet + chlorite = kyanite + biotite as is evidenced by a well‐defined resorption zone on the rim. Analysis of the reaction history and resorbed garnet composition suggests that the peak temperature attained was 620–660 °C. Diffusional modelling of the rim diffusion provides an estimate of the duration of the metamorphic episode over which significant garnet diffusion occurs. The duration is a function of the assumed peak temperature and garnet diffusivities and range from a few hundred thousand years to a few million years. Such short durations require rapid tectonic burial and exhumation of relatively thin tectonic slices.  相似文献   

A new numerical approach to the hyperstatic reaction method for segmental tunnel linings     

Ngoc Anh Do  Daniel Dias  Pierpaolo Oreste  Irini Djeran‐Maigre 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2014,38(15):1617-1632

This paper proposes a numerical approach to the hyperstatic reaction method (HRM) for the analysis of segmental tunnel linings. The influence of segmental joints has been considered directly using a fixity ratio that is determined on the basis of the rotational stiffness. The parameters necessary for the calculation are presented. A specific implementation has been developed using a FEM framework. This code is able to consider the three‐dimensional (3D) effect of segment joints in successive rings on the tunnel lining behaviour. The present HRM allows one to take an arbitrary distribution of segment joints along the tunnel boundary into consideration. In addition, the rotational stiffness of segment joints has been simulated using nonlinear behaviour, as it is closer to the true behaviour of a joint than linear or bilinear behaviour. The numerical results of three hypotheses on ring interaction, which allow the 3D effect of a segmental tunnel lining to be taken into account, have been compared with data obtained from the shield‐driven tunnel of the Bologna–Florence high‐speed railway line project. The numerical results presented in the paper show that the proposed HRM can be used to effectively estimate the behaviour of a segmental tunnel lining. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

IntCal13 calibrated ages of the Vedde and Saksunarvatn ashes and the Younger Dryas boundaries from Kråkenes,western Norway          下载免费PDF全文

ØYSTEIN S. LOHNE  JAN MANGERUD  HILARY H. BIRKS 《第四纪科学杂志》2014,29(5):506-507

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Simulation of drilling‐induced compaction bands using discrete element method     

H. Rahmati  A. Nouri  D. Chan  H. Vaziri 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2014,38(1):37-50

Rock failure is observed around boreholes often with certain types of failure zones, which are called breakouts. Laboratory‐scale drilling tests in some high‐porosity quartz‐rich sandstone have shown breakouts in the form of narrow localized compacted zones in the minimum horizontal stress direction. They are called fracture‐like breakouts. Such compaction bands may affect hydrocarbon extraction by forming barriers that inhibit fluid flow and may also be a source of sand production. This paper presents the results of numerical simulations of borehole breakouts using 3D discrete element method to investigate the mechanism of the fracture‐like breakouts and to identify the role of far‐field stresses on the breakout dimensions. The numerical tool was first verified against analytical solutions. It was then utilized to investigate the failure mechanism and breakout geometry for drilled cubic rock samples of Castlegate sandstone subjected to different pre‐existing far‐field stresses. Results show that failure occurs in the zones of the highest concentration of tangential stress around the borehole. It is concluded that fracture‐like breakout develops as a result of a nondilatant failure mechanism consisting of localized grain debonding and repacking and grain crushing that lead to the formation of a compaction band in the minimum horizontal stress direction. In addition, it is found that the length of fracture‐like breakouts depends on both the mean stress and stress anisotropy. However, the width of the breakout is not significantly changed by the far‐field stresses. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Balancing trade‐off issues in land use change and the impact on streamflow and salinity management          下载免费PDF全文

Xiang Cheng  Kurt K. Benke  Craig Beverly  Brendan Christy  Anna Weeks  Kirsten Barlow  Mark Reid 《水文研究》2014,28(4):1641-1662

The south‐west region of the Goulburn–Broken catchment in the south‐eastern Murray–Darling Basin in Australia faces a range of natural resource challenges. A balanced strategy is required to achieve the contrasting objectives of remediation of land salinization and reducing salt export, while maintaining water supply security to satisfy human consumption and support ecosystems. This study linked the Catchment Analysis Tool (CAT), comprising a suite of farming system models, to the catchment‐scale CATNode hydrological model to investigate the effects of land use change and climate variation on catchment streamflow and salt export. The modelling explored and contrasted the impacts of a series of different revegetation and climate scenarios. The results indicated that targeted revegetation to only satisfy biodiversity outcomes within a catchment is unlikely to have much greater impact on streamflow and salt load in comparison with simple random plantings. Additionally, the results also indicated that revegetation to achieve salt export reduction can effectively reduce salt export while having a disproportionately smaller affect on streamflows. Furthermore, streamflow declines can be minimized by targeting revegetation activities without significantly altering salt export. The study also found that climate change scenarios will have an equal if not more significant impact on these issues over the next 70 years. Uncertainty in CATNode streamflow predictions was investigated because of the effect of parameter uncertainty. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Analysis of uncertainties in the hydrological response of a model‐based climate change impact assessment in a subcatchment of the Spree River,Germany          下载免费PDF全文

Anne Gädeke  Herwig Hölzel  Hagen Koch  Ina Pohle  Uwe Grünewald 《水文研究》2014,28(12):3978-3998

Climate change impact assessments form the basis for the development of suitable climate change adaptation strategies. For this purpose, ensembles consisting of stepwise coupled models are generally used [emission scenario → global circulation model → downscaling approach (DA) → bias correction → impact model (hydrological model)], in which every item is affected by considerable uncertainty. The aim of the current study is (1) to analyse the uncertainty related to the choice of the DA as well as the hydrological model and its parameterization and (2) to evaluate the vulnerability of the studied catchment, a subcatchment of the highly anthropogenically impacted Spree River catchment, to hydrological change. Four different DAs are used to drive four different model configurations of two conceptually different hydrological models (Water Balance Simulation Model developed at ETH Zürich and HBV‐light). In total, 452 simulations are carried out. The results show that all simulations compute an increase in air temperature and potential evapotranspiration. For precipitation, runoff and actual evapotranspiration, opposing trends are computed depending on the DA used to drive the hydrological models. Overall, the largest source of uncertainty can be attributed to the choice of the DA, especially regarding whether it is statistical or dynamical. The choice of the hydrological model and its parameterization is of less importance when long‐term mean annual changes are compared. The large bandwidth at the end of the modelling chain may exacerbate the formulation of suitable climate change adaption strategies on the regional scale. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Application of semi‐distributed hydrological model for basin level water balance of the Ken basin of Central India          下载免费PDF全文

P. S. Murty  Ashish Pandey  Shakti Suryavanshi 《水文研究》2014,28(13):4119-4129

In the present study, a semi‐distributed hydrological model soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) has been employed for the Ken basin of Central India to predict the water balance. The entire basin was divided into ten sub basins comprising 107 hydrological response units on the basis of unique slope, soil and land cover classes using SWAT model. Sensitivity analysis of SWAT model was performed to examine the critical input variables of the study area. For Ken basin, curve number, available water capacity, soil depth, soil evaporation compensation factor and threshold depth of water in the shallow aquifer (GWQ_MN) were found to be the most sensitive parameters. Yearly and monthly calibration (1985–1996) and validation (1997–2009) were performed using the observed discharge data of the Banda site in the Ken basin. Performance evaluation of the model was carried out using coefficient of determination, Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency, root mean square error‐observations standard deviation ratio, percent bias and index of agreement criterion. It was found that SWAT model can be successfully applied for hydrological evaluation of the Ken basin, India. The water balance analysis was carried out to evaluate water balance of the Ken basin for 25 years (1985–2009). The water balance exhibited that the average annual rainfall in the Ken basin is about 1132 mm. In this, about 23% flows out as surface run‐off, 4% as groundwater flow and about 73% as evapotranspiration. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Optimisation of the Population Monte Carlo algorithm: Application to constraining isocurvature models with cosmic microwave background data     

D. Moodley  K. Moodley 《Astronomische Nachrichten》2016,337(6):672-682

We optimise the parameters of the Population Monte Carlo algorithm using numerical simulations. The optimisation is based on an efficiency statistic related to the number of samples evaluated prior to convergence, and is applied to a D ‐dimensional Gaussian distribution to derive optimal scaling laws for the algorithm parameters. More complex distributions such as the banana and bimodal distributions are also studied. We apply these results to a cosmological parameter estimation problem that uses CMB anisotropy data from the WMAP nine‐year release to constrain a six parameter adiabatic model and a fifteen parameter admixture model, consisting of correlated adiabatic and isocurvature perturbations. In the case of the adiabatic model and the admixture model we find that the number of sample points increase by factors of 3 and 20, respectively, relative to the optimal Gaussian case. This is due to degeneracies in the underlying parameter space. The WMAP nine‐year data constrain the admixture model to have an isocurvature fraction of 36.3 ± 2.8 %. (© 2016 WILEY‐VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)  相似文献   

Pattern,style and timing of British–Irish Ice Sheet advance and retreat over the last 45 000 years: evidence from NW Scotland and the adjacent continental shelf     

Tom Bradwell  Derek Fabel  Chris D. Clark  Richard C. Chiverrell  David Small  Rachel K. Smedley  Margot H. Saher  Steven G. Moreton  Dayton Dove  S. Louise Callard  Geoff A. T. Duller  Alicia Medialdea  Mark D. Bateman  Matthew J. Burke  Neil McDonald  Sean Gilgannon  Sally Morgan  David H. Roberts  Colm ó Cofaigh 《第四纪科学杂志》2021,36(5):871-933

Predicting the future response of ice sheets to climate warming and rising global sea level is important but difficult. This is especially so when fast-flowing glaciers or ice streams, buffered by ice shelves, are grounded on beds below sea level. What happens when these ice shelves are removed? And how do the ice stream and the surrounding ice sheet respond to the abruptly altered boundary conditions? To address these questions and others we present new geological, geomorphological, geophysical and geochronological data from the ice-stream-dominated NW sector of the last British–Irish Ice Sheet (BIIS). The study area covers around 45 000 km² of NW Scotland and the surrounding continental shelf. Alongside seabed geomorphological mapping and Quaternary sediment analysis, we use a suite of over 100 new absolute ages (including cosmogenic-nuclide exposure ages, optically stimulated luminescence ages and radiocarbon dates) collected from onshore and offshore, to build a sector-wide ice-sheet reconstruction combining all available evidence with Bayesian chronosequence modelling. Using this information we present a detailed assessment of ice-sheet advance/retreat history, and the glaciological connections between different areas of the NW BIIS sector, at different times during the last glacial cycle. The results show a highly dynamic, partly marine, partly terrestrial, ice-sheet sector undergoing large size variations in response to sub-millennial-scale climatic (Dansgaard–Oeschger) cycles over the last 45 000 years. Superimposed on these trends we identify internally driven instabilities, operating at higher frequency, conditioned by local topographic factors, tidewater dynamics and glaciological feedbacks during deglaciation. Specifically, our new evidence indicates extensive marine-terminating ice-sheet glaciation of the NW BIIS sector during Greenland Stadials 12 to 9 – prior to the main ‘Late Weichselian’ ice-sheet glaciation. After a period of restricted glaciation, in Greenland Interstadials 8 to 6, we find good evidence for rapid renewed ice-sheet build-up in NW Scotland, with the Minch ice-stream terminus reaching the continental shelf edge in Greenland Stadial 5, perhaps only briefly. Deglaciation of the NW sector took place in numerous stages. Several grounding-zone wedges and moraines on the mid- and inner continental shelf attest to significant stabilizations of the ice-sheet grounding line, or ice margin, during overall retreat in Greenland Stadials 3 and 2, and to the development of ice shelves. NW Lewis was the first substantial present-day land area to deglaciate, in the first half of Greenland Stadial 3 at a time of globally reduced sea-level c. 26 kabp , followed by Cape Wrath at c. 24 kabp. The topographic confinement of the Minch straits probably promoted ice-shelf development in early Greenland Stadial 2, providing the ice stream with additional support and buffering it somewhat from external drivers. However, c. 20–19 kabp , as the grounding-line migrated into shoreward deepening water, coinciding with a marked change in marine geology and bed strength, the ice stream became unstable. We find that, once underway, grounding-line retreat proceeded in an uninterrupted fashion with the rapid loss of fronting ice shelves – first in the west, then the east troughs – before eventual glacier stabilization at fjord mouths in NW Scotland by ~17 kabp. Around the same time, ~19–17 kabp , ice-sheet lobes readvanced into the East Minch – possibly a glaciological response to the marine-instability-triggered loss of adjacent ice stream (and/or ice shelf) support in the Minch trough. An independent ice cap on Lewis also experienced margin oscillations during mid-Greenland Stadial 2, with an ice-accumulation centre in West Lewis existing into the latter part of Heinrich Stadial 1. Final ice-sheet deglaciation of NW mainland Scotland was punctuated by at least one other coherent readvance at c. 15.5 kabp , before significant ice-mass losses thereafter. At the glacial termination, c. 14.5 kabp , glaciers fed outwash sediment to now-abandoned coastal deltas in NW mainland Scotland around the time of global Meltwater Pulse 1A. Overall, this work on the BIIS NW sector reconstructs a highly dynamic ice-sheet oscillating in extent and volume for much of the last 45 000 years. Periods of expansive ice-sheet glaciation dominated by ice-streaming were interspersed with periods of much more restricted ice-cap or tidewater/fjordic glaciation. Finally, this work indicates that the role of ice streams in ice-sheet evolution is complex but mechanistically important throughout the lifetime of an ice sheet – with ice streams contributing to the regulation of ice-sheet health but also to the acceleration of ice-sheet demise via marine ice-sheet instabilities.  相似文献